(The Insurer) – Concerns have been raised over potential disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz following the U.S. attack on key Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend.
Iran vowed to defend itself a day after the U.S. dropped 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs onto the mountain above Iran’s Fordow nuclear site.
Tehran has so far not followed through on its threats of retaliation against the U.S., either by targeting U.S. bases or by attempting to choke off global oil supplies.
But Goldman Sachs said in a note on Sunday that prediction markets, despite limited liquidity, reflected a 52% probability of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, citing data from Polymarket.
“While the events in the Middle East remain fluid, we think that the economic incentives, including for the U.S. and China, to try to prevent a sustained and very large disruption of the Strait of Hormuz would be strong,” Goldman Sachs said.
Nearly a quarter of global oil shipments pass through the narrow waters that Iran shares with Oman and the United Arab Emirates.
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council must make the final decision on whether to close the Strait of Hormuz following U.S. bombing raids, Iran’s Press TV said on Sunday, after parliament was reported to have backed the measure.
The Lloyd’s Market Association’s head of marine and aviation, Neil Roberts, said that the U.S. action raised the chances of an Iranian or Houthi response against targets by association.
Given the “markedly reduced” number of Western ships in the Red Sea, Roberts said that targets being sought in the Strait of Hormuz could be more likely.
“However, Iranian self-interests are thought by most to limit what they could/will do in Hormuz as so many countries rely on the straits,” Roberts said.
As of June 18, three senior marine market sources said war risks premiums for the Persian Gulf were around 0.2%.
Source: Reuters
