Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has picked up in recent days, lending some support to claims by U.S. President Donald Trump that Iran has allowed 10 oil tankers to pass as part of ongoing negotiations.
Speaking at a Cabinet meeting today, Trump said Tehran had permitted 10 oil tankers to transit the critical waterway as a goodwill gesture.
“They said, to show you the fact that we’re real and solid… we’re going to let you have eight boats of oil… It ended up being 10 boats,” he said, describing the move as a “present” amid talks.
Data from Morgan Stanley suggests a similar trend, though over a slightly broader timeframe. The investment bank said it counted three tankers transiting outbound through the Strait on March 26 and revised its estimate for the previous day up to two vessels from zero.
Looking at the past several days, Morgan Stanley estimates that as many as 12 vessels have passed through the Strait since March 23. That marks a clear increase compared with the prior four-day period from March 19 to 22, when only three vessels were recorded.
The pickup in traffic comes after a period of sharp disruption linked to the escalating Iran conflict, which had raised fears of a near-complete halt in flows through one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints.
“The Iran war has produced the largest geopolitical shock to energy markets since the 1990 Gulf War,” Barclays commodity strategist Amarpreet Singh said in a note.
While the recent increase remains modest compared with normal levels, the change in direction is notable for markets closely watching signs of either further escalation or tentative de-escalation.
The Strait of Hormuz handles a significant share of global oil shipments, and even small changes in traffic can have an outsized impact on market sentiment.
“A prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption implies a 13–14 mb/d supply loss, and global above-ground inventories entered the conflict already tighter than before Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, leaving little cushion despite record SPR releases,” Singh added. Source: Investing.com
