A war-driven oil shock has once again exposed shipping’s vulnerability to fossil fuel dependence and reinforced the need to shift to low- and zero-emission bunker fuels.
The ongoing Middle East conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have roiled global oil and gas markets. The front-month ICE Brent crude futures contract topped $100/bbl earlier this week, a staggering $27/bbl rise from around $73/bbl before the war started.
For bunker buyers, the fallout has been painful.
Conventional fuel availability has tightened at major hubs like ARA and Singapore. Bunkering in Fujairah and Khor Fakkan has been thrown into uncertainty over fuel loadings. Rallying crude prices, bunker supply squeezes and surging demand have sent bunker prices into a frenzy this month. VLSFO and HSFO benchmarks have shot up by $268–314/mt in Rotterdam and by $405–617/mt in Singapore. Singapore’s LSMGO price has surged $1,112/mt higher so far this month, pushed up by a $344/mt gain in low-sulphur gasoil futures and severely tight supply.
This fallout from the war has once again exposed shipping’s vulnerability to geopolitical shocks and conventional fuel supply disruptions.
“The Middle East crisis has clearly shown that reliance on a small number of petrostates for global trade and global energy security is potentially outdated,” Em Fenton, senior director for climate diplomacy at Opportunity Green, told ENGINE.
“Actually what we should be looking towards is a just and equitable transition to a globally decentralised energy economy that will support the shipping, or even the aviation industry, and ensure net-zero emissions. And I think that [the Middle East crisis] we’re seeing at the moment is a very good argument to invest in truly net-zero alternative fuels.”
Two e-fuel producers have echoed Fenton’s views.
Germany-based Ineratec argued that “decentralised” production facilities could “reduce European dependency on crude oil imports, diversifying supply structures while simultaneously lowering emissions across fuel supply chains.”
Sweden’s Liquid Wind was equally direct.
“Recent turmoil in the Middle East and sharp spikes in global oil and gas prices highlight how exposed Europe remains as long as it relies on imported fossil energy. When major shipping routes can be disrupted overnight, the true cost of fossil dependence becomes clear,” the company noted.
Both companies have planned modular plants designed to produce e-fuels for shipping and other sectors.
Ineratec produces synthetic marine diesel oil (e-MDO) derived from green hydrogen and captured carbon, a drop-in fuel that can be used in conventional marine engines without any modifications.
Liquid Wind is targeting 80 modular plants across the Nordic region by 2030, each capable of producing around 100,000 mt/year of e-methanol.
“E-Fuels like e-methanol will be essential, especially for aviation and shipping, where liquid fuels remain necessary long‑term. Expanding European e-fuel production, based on renewable electricity and biogenic CO2, can reduce reliance on unstable regions and strengthen Europe’s industrial and strategic autonomy,” Liquid Wind added.
And a flurry of commercial activity over the past week suggests that interest in low- and zero-emission fuels has started to translate into action.
Japan’s Idemitsu Kosan and Singapore-headquartered bunker supplier Consort Bunkers plan to supply green methanol variants in Singapore and major East Asian ports. Idemitsu will procure bio- and e-methanol and Consort Bunkers will carry out physical deliveries.
Wallenius Wilhelmsen has signed a two-year agreement to purchase bio-methanol from Equinor. Deliveries will start later this year in the ports of Zeebrugge and Antwerp. The physical supplier has not yet been disclosed.
Over the past week, Chimbusco Pan Nation and Sinopec (Hong Kong) Petroleum each carried out bio-methanol bunker operations in China and Hong Kong. The third operation saw SIPG Energy deliver more than 3,300 mt of bio-methanol to a CMA CGM vessel.
Danish shipping firm A.P. Moller-Maersk will source liquefied biomethane (LBM) from bunker supplier Avenir LNG’s subsidiary Avenir Marine. The first volumes are expected to be delivered in 2027, around the same time that Maersk will take delivery of its first LNG dual-fuel vessel, Avenir said.
Whether this momentum translates into lasting structural change will largely depend on policy implementation, especially at the IMO.
“Scaling up low- and zero-emission fuels is essential. Whether it’s now or into the future, the transition away from fossil fuels in crucial. If we do it now and we do it on a global basis, it will be fairer, more effective and more economical. But it has to happen,” Fenton stressed.
IMO member states are scheduled to meet in April for the Marine Environment Protection Committee’s 84th session (MEPC 84) in London, which could be a critical opportunity to advance global Net-Zero Framework discussions and finalise lifecycle assessment guidelines.
And Fenton argues that nations can’t afford to stall. “If scaling up e-fuels is supported by global regulation, then it’s not individual countries or companies trying to build their own supply chains,” they said. “It becomes a global supply chain that can be designed around shared demand. I think now is the best time to do this, if not yesterday.”
In other news this week, companies are holding off investments in hydrogen carrier import terminals due to uncertainty over future demand, the Port of Rotterdam authority said, following a recent market consultation. Most companies expect planned terminals to become operational only after 2030, the port authority added.
Tanker shipping company AET completed its first LBM trial as part of its efforts to advance decarbonisation and prepare for FuelEU Maritime targets. The trial was conducted on the dual-fuel Aframax tanker Eagle Brasilia, which took on LBM in Rotterdam before undertaking a cross-European voyage.
Hy2Gen-owned Iverson eFuels pulled the plug on its planned green ammonia project in Norway’s Sauda district, which could have produced fuel for bunkering. Iverson eFuels made the decision after the Norwegian state-owned grid operator Statnett withdrew the project’s allocated grid capacity, it said. Source: Engine
