The outlook for MPV shipping for 2026 is cautiously optimistic, supported by steady project cargo demand despite geopolitical and economic uncertainties. Project Carrier rates are expected to rise gradually after a flat 2H25, while General Cargo rates will likely remain under pressure due to intense competition from containers.
The year 2025 was marked by geopolitical instability, changing US trade policies and volatile economic indicators, all of which impacted trade confidence and long-term planning. Although Red Sea transits are slowly resuming and providing some operational relief, ongoing conflicts like those in Ukraine as well as broader macroeconomic uncertainties continue to affect MPV shipping.
Rising competition, geopolitics and project demand will shape the MPV segment in 2026 Global GDP growth is projected at around 2.7% in 2026, supporting moderate growth in MPV demand. As shippers increasingly use the Red Sea route, competition from container vessels is expected to keep General Cargo rates under pressure, while Project Carrier earnings should remain relatively stable. Geopolitical developments continue to influence trade: a Middle East ceasefire has eased shipments, although full Suez route restoration is unlikely before the end of 1H26. Meanwhile, ongoing tensions in Ukraine maintain energy security priorities, underpinning the demand for project cargo.
Growth for cargo carried on General Cargo vessels is expected to remain low, at around 1.3% in 2026, whereas rising costs from tariffs and broader economic uncertainty may further constrain demand. Meanwhile, container vessel supply is likely to surge due to high deliveries and lower utilisation as ships increasingly transit the Red Sea.
While Project Carriers are expected to increase their market share in complex project cargoes, General Cargo vessels will face intense competition primarily from containers and, to some degree, the dry bulk sector, which may restrict their volumes.
Overall, MPV volume growth has been revised down to approximately 2.9% for 2026, with fleet growth projected at around 3.5%.
Project Carriers will outperform MPV deliveries in 2026 whereas General Cargo faces slippages Regulatory factors are shaping fleet dynamics, with alternative fuel vessels currently representing only 1.3% of the MPV fleet by dwt but accounting for 12.5% of the orderbook; a share expected to grow in 2026 as owners respond to IMO regulations and fuel availability. Fleet development in 2025 has been mixed: approximately 2.7 mdwt has been delivered, below the 4 mdwt forecast, bringing the total fleet to around 64.5 mdwt. Project Carriers performed strongly, with over 80% of their orderbook delivered, while General Cargo deliveries lagged due to higher slippages. We believe demolitions of General Cargo vessels will fall short of our expectations, limiting near-term oversupply risks, whereas they will be in line with our expectations for Project Carriers.
General Cargo TC rates to be under pressure amid competition from containers Oversupply in the container sector and weak tonne-mile demand are pushing TC rates lower for container ships, increasing their competition with General Cargo vessels. Elevated deliveries and subdued demolitions in the General Cargo fleet will further squeeze utilisation and TC rates, particularly for mid-sized, low-lifting vessels. In contrast, Project Carriers could be better positioned due to the strong project pipeline, limited orderbook growth and specialised specifications, while competition from Handysize vessels could be limited due to controlled fleet growth and firm utilisation.
Project Carriers poised to outperform as the MPV market recovers in 2026 In summary, rates for Project Carriers are expected to increase in 2026, primarily driven by reduced tariff uncertainties, and strong demand for project cargo linked to energy security and green transition initiatives. However, shippers are likely to incur higher transport costs, except for cargo returning to the Red Sea from the COGH as Suez transits could be normalised by the end of 1H26. We expect General Cargo rates to remain under pressure with container ships giving them a run for their money while Handysize vessels will also compete to a certain extent. Source: Drewry
