Geopolitical and policy risks have become bigger drivers of our ‘deteriorating’ 2026 outlook for the global shipping sector than underlying industry fundamentals, Fitch Ratings says. These risks include potential tariff-related escalation; other protectionism-driven tensions such as port fees; the possible resumption of Red Sea transits; a potential conflict in Venezuela; and increasing competition for control of shipping value chains.
We expect container-shipping performance to weaken in 2026, according to Global Shipping Outlook 2026, as lower freight rates resulting from a weakened supply-demand balance will lead to lower profits, alongside the risk to freight rates from a potential resumption of Red Sea transits. We expect regional variations, with container trade to North America remaining particularly weak compared with other regions.
The container order book, at about 30% of the existing fleet, is at its highest level in more than 10 years. This reflects continuing new orders to replace ageing fleets and to upgrade vessels to multi‑fuel capability to meet emissions‑reduction targets, as well as capacity growth. As a result, we expect supply to exceed demand; however, we also expect partial mitigation through increased fleet idling (from about 1% currently), blank sailings, scrapping and slow steaming.
Tankers should continue to perform well, particularly crude tankers, due to growth in end demand and tonne-miles. Seaborne oil trade grew in 2025 due to higher production by OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ producers, leading to about a 3% supply increase, with the same expected in 2026. The rise in tonne-miles related to oil exports from Russia, and Red Sea disruption has kept overall demand for tankers high.
We expect weak performance in the dry-bulk segment but volumes should be stable year on year. Order books remain healthy, at close to 11% and 16% of the existing fleet for dry bulk and tankers, respectively, which are needed to replace the ageing fleets. Further significant growth is limited by the shortage of yard slots for new orders over the next three years.
We expect performance across other segments, such as liquefied natural gas shipping and car carriers, to remain broadly stable.
A further increase in trade protectionism could also alter trade flows and limit demand for certain high-margin or critical products in the medium term. Some new trade lanes could strengthen to offset those more affected by tariffs, but we believe protectionism is overall negative for the shipping industry.
Emissions regulations have developed further and there is better visibility over the International Maritime Organisation’s longer-term plan through the Net-Zero framework, although it is yet to be approved. These regulatory developments are likely to put pressure on shipping companies’ margins in the medium term, and the extent of pass-through is not yet known.
Source: Fitch Ratings
